Increased El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability under greenhouse warming and 
the impact on Antarctic ice sheet melt and Southern Ocean warming

Cai, Wenju

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-2982

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Increased El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability under greenhouse warming and the impact on Antarctic ice sheet melt and Southern Ocean warming

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Cai, Wenju
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Cai, W. (2023): Increased El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability under greenhouse warming and the impact on Antarctic ice sheet melt and Southern Ocean warming, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2982

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018910

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) underpins its global impact. Future change of ENSO SST variability is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports no systematic change in ENSO and IOD SST under any emission scenarios considered. However, comparison in a century-long period between the 20th and 21st century shows a robust increase in ENSO and IOD SST variability in some plausible scenarios, with substantial impacts. For example, the increase in ENSO SST variability leads to a reduced Southern Ocean midlatitude warming, an accelerated warming in Antarctic shelf ocean, but a slowed Antarctic sea ice reduction. An increase in ENSO variability leading to a slower intensification of circum-Antarctic warm upwelling is responsible for these impacts.