Evaluation of the predictions submitted to the Second Earth Orientation 
Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

Śliwińska, Justyna; Kur, Tomasz; Nastula, Jolanta; Dobslaw, H.; Wińska, Małgorzata; Partyka, Aleksander

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-3295

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Evaluation of the predictions submitted to the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

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Śliwińska, Justyna
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kur, Tomasz
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Nastula, Jolanta
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Dobslaw, H.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Wińska, Małgorzata
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Partyka, Aleksander
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Śliwińska, J., Kur, T., Nastula, J., Dobslaw, H., Wińska, M., Partyka, A. (2023): Evaluation of the predictions submitted to the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3295

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019709

Abstract

Real-time information on Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks including positioning and navigation on Earth and in space. Therefore, EOP short-term prediction has become a subject of increased attention within the international geodetic community.Scientific progress in the prediction methods but also in the geodetic data processing, and modelling effective angular momentum functions raise the need to re-evaluate various EOP prediction approaches. This was the objective of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC). The campaign lasted from September 1, 2021 to December 28, 2022. During this period, more than 7000 predictions were submitted by registered participants. Thanks to international cooperation, the campaign was a great success of the geodetic community.In this study, we provide a summary of the 2nd EOP PCC, focusing on the quality of EOP predictions. We present time evolution of the prediction accuracy obtained on the basis of the mean absolute error for the IERS 14 C04 solution as a reference. We also analyse the impact of filtering outlier predictions on the overall accuracy of the EOP forecasts. We end the presentation with initial conclusions on the most encouraging prediction methodologies together with plans for the possible continuation of the campaign involving new release of IERS 20 C04.