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Tsunami forecasting variability as resulting from slip models obtained by geophysical data inversion and by a Phase Variation Method

Authors

Romano,  Fabrizio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Catalan,  Patricio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lorito,  Stefano
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Escalante Sanchez,  Cipriano
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Atzori,  Simone
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lay,  Thorne
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Tonini,  Roberto
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Volpe,  Manuela
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Piatanesi,  Alessio
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Macias Sanchez,  Jorge
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Castro Diaz,  Manuel
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Romano, F., Catalan, P., Lorito, S., Escalante Sanchez, C., Atzori, S., Lay, T., Tonini, R., Volpe, M., Piatanesi, A., Macias Sanchez, J., Castro Diaz, M. (2023): Tsunami forecasting variability as resulting from slip models obtained by geophysical data inversion and by a Phase Variation Method, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4640


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021049
Abstract
The accurate estimate of the tsunami forecast is crucial in Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) framework. However, the inherent uncertainties associated with the tsunami source estimation in real-time make tsunami forecasting challenging. In this study, we consider the South American subduction zone, one of the most seismically active regions in the world, where in the last 15 years occurred, three M8+ tsunamigenic earthquakes; in particular, we focus on the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique event. Here, we compare the tsunami forecasting for the Chilean coast as resulting i) from the coseismic slip model obtained by geophysical data inversion and ii) from an expeditious method for the tsunami source estimation, based on an extension of the well-known spectral approach. In the former method, we estimate the slip distribution of the 2014 Iquique earthquake by jointly inverting tsunami waveforms and GPS data; on the other hand, a set of stochastic slip models in the latter is generated through a Phase Variation Method (PVM), where realizations are obtained from both the wavenumber and phase spectra of the source. We also evaluate how the different physics complexity included in the tsunami modelling (e.g. by including dispersion or not) can be mapped into the tsunami forecasting uncertainty. Finally, as an independent check, we compare the predicted deformation field from the slip models (inverted or by PVM) with the RADARSAT-2 InSAR data.