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A workflow for rapid time-dependent estimates of earthquake-induced mass-movement likelihood and associated impacts in Switzerland

Authors

Cauzzi,  Carlo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Knupfer,  Jann-Andrea
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Wiemer,  Stefan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Danciu,  Laurentiu
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Papadopoulos,  Athanasios
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kästli,  Philipp
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Cauzzi, C., Knupfer, J.-A., Wiemer, S., Danciu, L., Papadopoulos, A., Kästli, P. (2023): A workflow for rapid time-dependent estimates of earthquake-induced mass-movement likelihood and associated impacts in Switzerland, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4930


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021330
Abstract
Earthquake-induced mass movements are a substantial threat to mountainous areas in seismically active regions like the Valais, the most seismically hazardous region of Switzerland. We present a strategy to deliver rapid time-dependent predictions of mass-movement likelihoods in the Valais and their impacts on lifelines in near real-time during major earthquake sequences. We rely on the Swiss Seismic Hazard and ShakeMap frameworks and on the availability of a Swiss-specific empirical model for the prediction of seismically induced mass-movement likelihoods, and combine them with rapid earthquake shaking estimates based on short-term seismicity forecasts following a triggering seismic event. The obtained probabilities of mass-movement are spatially associated with exposed assets in the region to estimate the associated risk. This procedure can provide stakeholders with alarm levels and other decision-making tools based on risk-cost-benefit considerations for critical lifelines.