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Conference Paper

The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland ice sheet

Authors

Lauritzen,  Mikkel
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Aðalgeirsdóttir,  Guðfinna
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rathmann,  Nicholas
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Grinsted,  Aslak
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Noël,  Brice
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Hvidberg,  Christine S.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Lauritzen, M., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Rathmann, N., Grinsted, A., Noël, B., Hvidberg, C. S. (2023): The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland ice sheet, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4165


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021604
Abstract
Uncertainties in the projected contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise mainly depend on uncertainties in the initial state of the present-day ice sheet. A previous study showed that including the inter-annual climate variability in the forcing of a simplified ice sheet model leads to an increased mass loss rate, but the effect on the Greenland ice sheet is poorly known. Here we quantify the influence of inter-annual variability on mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet using the PISM model. We construct an ensemble of climate-forcing fields that accounts for inter-annual variability in temperature using reanalysis data products from RACMO and NOAA-CIRES. We investigate the Greenland ice sheet geometry's steady state and future evolution. We find that the steady-state ice sheet volume decreases by 0.24-0.38% when forced with a varying temperature forcing compared to a constant temperature forcing, equivalent to 21.7±5.0 mm of sea level rise (SLE). The northern basins are particularly sensitive with a change in volume of 1.2-0.9%. The response to abrupt warming is 0.03-0.21 mm SLE higher per year depending on climate scenario. Our results emphasize the importance of including temperature variability in projections of future mass loss.