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Conference Paper

Consequences of overshooting the Paris temperature targets for global glacier runoff

Authors

Schuster,  Lilian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rounce,  David
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Schmitt,  Patrick
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Ultee,  Lizz
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Maussion,  Fabien
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Schuster, L., Rounce, D., Schmitt, P., Ultee, L., Maussion, F. (2023): Consequences of overshooting the Paris temperature targets for global glacier runoff, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4298


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021733
Abstract
With global temperatures on track to exceed critical thresholds, understanding the impacts of "peak-and-decline" overshoot scenarios is essential. While the response of glaciers to global warming has been well-studied, the effects of overshoot scenarios on glacier runoff remain unclear. This study aims to quantify and analyze the differences in annual and seasonal glacier runoff changes on several heavily glaciated basins under various climate scenarios that all reach a net global warming of +1.5°C in 2300, with some scenarios overshooting by up to +3.3°C (extreme case). Specifically, we investigate how much time glaciers will need to stabilize or even grow after peak warming and whether annual glacier runoff will temporarily diminish due to glacier regrowth during overshoot scenarios. We also examine glacier water supply during periods with low precipitation and identify key glacier-basin characteristics that influence the risks of overshoot scenarios on glacier runoff changes. Our findings have important implications for assessing the risks inherent to overshoot scenarios and informing long-term adaptation planning in glacierized basins.