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Conference Paper

Exploration of state-dependent rapid loss assessment and event-based operational earthquake loss forecasting incorporating structural health monitoring: an open-source tool

Authors
/persons/resource/cnievas

Nievas,  C.
2.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Crowley,  Helen
External Organizations;

Reuland,  Yves
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/gweather

Weatherill,  Graeme
2.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Baltzopoulos,  Georgios
External Organizations;

Bayliss,  Kirsty
External Organizations;

Chatzi,  Eleni
External Organizations;

Guéguen,  Philippe
External Organizations;

Naylor,  Mark
External Organizations;

Orlacchio,  Mabel
External Organizations;

Pejovic,  Jelena
External Organizations;

Serafini,  Francesco
External Organizations;

Serdar,  Nina
External Organizations;

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Fulltext (public)

5022786.pdf
(Publisher version), 1006KB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Nievas, C., Crowley, H., Reuland, Y., Weatherill, G., Baltzopoulos, G., Bayliss, K., Chatzi, E., Guéguen, P., Naylor, M., Orlacchio, M., Pejovic, J., Serafini, F., Serdar, N. (2023): Exploration of state-dependent rapid loss assessment and event-based operational earthquake loss forecasting incorporating structural health monitoring: an open-source tool - Proceedings, SECED 2023 Conference: Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future (Cambridge, UK 2023), 10 p.


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5022786
Abstract
Soon after an earthquake occurs, several stakeholders become interested in estimating the damage and losses generated by the event, as this can inform decision-making processes regarding first response, aid and recovery. The scenario might change rapidly if subsequent aftershocks cause further damage, which might occur even with low shaking intensities, given the cumulative weakening of the structures due to successive shocks. Recently-developed strategies for large-scale derivation of state-dependent fragility models allow for this to be taken into account when carrying out Rapid Loss Assessments (RLAs) during an ongoing sequence, as well as when estimating short-term future losses based on seismicity forecasts in the context of Operational Earthquake Loss Forecasting (OELF). Moreover, recent advances in the estimation of damage by means of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) offer the possibility of incorporating information recorded at the buildings themselves to both RLA and OELF. Partner institutions of the European Horizon 2020 RISE project have been working on several of these fronts and, as part of the project, an open-source Python module has been developed that runs RLA and OELF calculations by calling OpenQuake and continuously updating the building stock to reflect the probabilities of buildings suffering from different damage states at different stages of an ongoing earthquake sequence. The module also calculates expected direct economic losses as well as number of injuries and deaths, and uses the latter to update the number of occupants at any point in time. While our workflow builds upon existing work, we believe it to be the first that is publicly available as open-source software and it is thus particularly suited for incorporating further aspects of the earthquake consequence chain (e.g., other sources of damage estimation, longerterm recovery) and evaluating the feasibility of computational demands, while being amenable to further development towards rendering these new technologies fully operational.