Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results 
of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Justyna; Kur, Tomasz; Wińska, Małgorzata; Dobslaw, Henryk; Nastula, Jolanta; Partyka, Aleksander; Belda, Santiago; Bizouard, Christian; Boggs, Dale; Bruni, Sara; Chen, Lue; Chin, Mike; Dhar, Sujata; Dill, R.; Ferrandiz, Jose Manuel; Gou, Junyang; Gross, Richard; Guessoum, Sonia; Han, Songtao; Heinkelmann, R.; Irrgang, C.; Kiani Shahvandi, Mostafa; Li, Jia; Ligas, Marcin; Liu, Lintao; Lu, Weitao; Mayer, Volker; Michalczak, Maciej; Modiri, Sadegh; Otten, Michiel; Ratcliff, Todd; Raut, Shrishail; Saynisch-Wagner, J.; Schartner, Matthias; Schoenemann, Erik; Schuh, H.; Soja, Benedikt; Su, Xiaoqing; Thaller, Daniela; Thomas, M.; Wang, Guocheng; Wu, Yuanwei; Xu, Xueqing; Yang, Xinyu; Zhao, Xin; Zhou, Zhijin

doi:10.1007/s00190-024-01824-7

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Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

Authors

Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Justyna
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Kur, Tomasz
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Wińska, Małgorzata
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/dobslaw

Dobslaw, Henryk
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Nastula, Jolanta
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Partyka, Aleksander
External Organizations;

Belda, Santiago
External Organizations;

Bizouard, Christian
External Organizations;

Boggs, Dale
External Organizations;

Bruni, Sara
External Organizations;

Chen, Lue
External Organizations;

Chin, Mike
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sdhar

Dhar, Sujata
1.1 Space Geodetic Techniques, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/dill

Dill, R.
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Ferrandiz, Jose Manuel
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Gou, Junyang
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Gross, Richard
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Guessoum, Sonia
External Organizations;

Han, Songtao
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/persons/resource/rob

Heinkelmann, R.
1.1 Space Geodetic Techniques, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/irrgang

Irrgang, C.
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Kiani Shahvandi, Mostafa
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Li, Jia
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Ligas, Marcin
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Liu, Lintao
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Lu, Weitao
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Mayer, Volker
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Michalczak, Maciej
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Modiri, Sadegh
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Otten, Michiel
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Ratcliff, Todd
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/persons/resource/raut

Raut, Shrishail
1.1 Space Geodetic Techniques, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/saynisch

Saynisch-Wagner, J.
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Schartner, Matthias
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Schoenemann, Erik
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/persons/resource/schuh

Schuh, H.
1.1 Space Geodetic Techniques, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Soja, Benedikt
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Su, Xiaoqing
External Organizations;

Thaller, Daniela
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/persons/resource/mthomas

Thomas, M.
1.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Wang, Guocheng
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Wu, Yuanwei
External Organizations;

Xu, Xueqing
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Yang, Xinyu
External Organizations;

Zhao, Xin
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Zhou, Zhijin
External Organizations;

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Citation

Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Kur, T., Wińska, M., Dobslaw, H., Nastula, J., Partyka, A., Belda, S., Bizouard, C., Boggs, D., Bruni, S., Chen, L., Chin, M., Dhar, S., Dill, R., Ferrandiz, J. M., Gou, J., Gross, R., Guessoum, S., Han, S., Heinkelmann, R., Irrgang, C., Kiani Shahvandi, M., Li, J., Ligas, M., Liu, L., Lu, W., Mayer, V., Michalczak, M., Modiri, S., Otten, M., Ratcliff, T., Raut, S., Saynisch-Wagner, J., Schartner, M., Schoenemann, E., Schuh, H., Soja, B., Su, X., Thaller, D., Thomas, M., Wang, G., Wu, Y., Xu, X., Yang, X., Zhao, X., Zhou, Z. (2024): Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign. - Journal of Geodesy, 98, 22.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-024-01824-7

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5025618

Abstract

Predicting Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is crucial for precise positioning and navigation both on the Earth’s surface and in space. In recent years, many approaches have been developed to forecast EOP, incorporating observed EOP as well as information on the effective angular momentum (EAM) derived from numerical models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land-surface dynamics. The Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) aimed to comprehensively evaluate EOP forecasts from many international participants and identify the most promising prediction methodologies. This paper presents the validation results of predictions for universal time and length-of-day variations submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC, providing an assessment of their accuracy and reliability. We conduct a detailed evaluation of all valid forecasts using the IERS 14 C04 solution provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) as a reference and mean absolute error as the quality measure. Our analysis demonstrates that approaches based on machine learning or the combination of least squares and autoregression, with the use of EAM information as an additional input, provide the highest prediction accuracy for both investigated parameters. Utilizing precise EAM data and forecasts emerges as a pivotal factor in enhancing forecasting accuracy. Although several methods show some potential to outperform the IERS forecasts, the current standard predictions disseminated by IERS are highly reliable and can be fully recommended for operational purposes.