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Conference Paper

An abrupt transition in Antarctic sea ice–ocean system

Authors

Haumann,  F. Alexander
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Massonnet,  François
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Holland,  Paul R.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Bushuk,  Mitchell
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Maksym,  Ted
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Hobbs,  Will
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Meredith,  Michael P.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Cerovečki,  Ivana
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lavergne,  Thomas
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Meier,  Walter N.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Raphael,  Marilyn
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Stammerjohn,  Sharon
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Haumann, F. A., Massonnet, F., Holland, P. R., Bushuk, M., Maksym, T., Hobbs, W., Meredith, M. P., Cerovečki, I., Lavergne, T., Meier, W. N., Raphael, M., Stammerjohn, S. (2023): An abrupt transition in Antarctic sea ice–ocean system, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2940


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018918
Abstract
Over the past decade, Antarctic sea ice extent exhibited a sequence of record maxima, followed by a rapid decline in 2015/16, and record minima since. In this presentation, we show that this sudden and remarkable ice loss marks an abrupt transition from a high to a low ice state that cannot be explained by year-to-year variability. Instead, it is most likely associated with a longer term variability arising from ice–ocean feedbacks. The abrupt transition was preceded by an increase in persistence and variance of the sea ice anomalies, an increasing upper Southern Ocean density stratification, and an accumulation of heat at the subsurface; suggesting a decoupling of the surface from the subsurface ocean. During this period, the sea ice anomalies shifted from being structured predominantly regionally and seasonally to a largely circumpolar and interannual regime. In 2015/16, the upper ocean density stratification in the ice-covered region suddenly weakened, leading to a release of the heat from the subsurface, contributing to the sea ice decline during winter. Our analysis suggests that the sudden sea ice loss in 2015/16, and the persisting low ice conditions since, arose from a systematic change in the physical state of the coupled circumpolar ice–ocean system. This change will have wide implications for global climate, ecosystems, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet.