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Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change - the need for whole atmosphere observation and operational attribution

Authors

Osprey,  Scott
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Behrens,  Erik
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Brookshaw,  Anca
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Findell,  Kirsten
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Heimbach,  Patrick
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kushner,  Paul
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Risbey,  James
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Smith,  Doug
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Steiner,  Andrea
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Sutton,  Rowan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Wang,  Zhuo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Osprey, S., Behrens, E., Brookshaw, A., Findell, K., Heimbach, P., Kushner, P., Risbey, J., Smith, D., Steiner, A., Sutton, R., Wang, Z. (2023): Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change - the need for whole atmosphere observation and operational attribution, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3682


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020860
Abstract
Recent annual assessments of present-day and future climate variability provided by the World Meteorological Organization have motivated the need for the attribution of environmental change, separating climate forcing agents from large-scale natural climate variability. To address this need operational forecasting systems are essential together with sustained, comprehensive and relevant observations for assessing current climate and climate forcers. The World Climate Research Programme Light House Activity – Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC) – will cast a new light on the proximal drivers of regional climate variation on annual-to-decadal (A2D) timescales. The EPESC is focused on three distinct yet interrelated themes: The monitoring and modelling of Earth system change; the integrated attribution, prediction and projection of A2D changes including the potential for extremes; and the assessment of current and future hazards. In this presentation we will outline the current and future requirements of A2D prediction and projection, including the requisite infrastructure of operational attribution and the need for comprehensive whole-atmosphere observations, such as those which will be provided by the proposed Changing-Atmosphere Infra-Red Tomography Explorer (CAIRT), recently selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) as one of four candidates for the Earth Explorer 11 mission.